Crime in the 21^st century

 

I suppose it is now appropriate to offer some speculations on what the new century will offer us as far as crime is concerned.  Frankly, I am a bit reluctant to offer any predictions about the future, but since everyone else is doing it, I guess it can't hurt to add my own opinions.  But I won't go beyond the next 20 years.

First, let's look at crime in general.  Most criminologists have predicted that the recent downward trend in crime rates will probably reverse itself very soon.  What is likely to increase is violent crime, especially domestic violence and gun violence (need I predict that the sale of guns will continue unabated?).  The increase in domestic violence may be partly attributed (as it has in recent years) to greater awareness of the problem and a greater willingness of victims to report these incidents (mostly women) and for the criminal justice system to take this problem seriously.  On the positive side, greater awareness and greater involvement by the police and the courts, will eventually result in safer homes (statistically speaking, home is the least safe place to be - schools are the safest).

Property crime will continue to decrease (with the possible exception of motor vehicle theft - there is still and will continue to be a big market for stolen auto parts).  What will likely increase are drug offenses, since the powers that be decided two decades ago to declare a "war on drugs" that shows no sign of abating.  Mind you that I did not say drug use will rise.  Indeed, the use of drugs like pot and cocaine and other illegal drugs have been steadily declining since the early 1980s (and not because of the "war on drugs").  Part of this will be the direct result of the profits that so many are making because certain drugs are illegal (continued funding for the police, more prisons and prison construction dollars, more drug testing profits, etc.).  I should stress that the biggest drug traffickers go unpunished.  I am referring here to those huge corporations that manufacture and distribute legally dangerous drugs, including alcohol and tobacco. (And will the fraudulent price-gouging of drug companies be halted?)

Speaking of tobacco, many are predicting that this product may eventually be criminalized to some extent. But the people who will be affected by such criminalization will be mostly the poor and racial minorities, whose rates of consumption of tobacco have not dropped nearly as much as the more affluent and white segments of the population.

There have been some who have predicted that crimes among juveniles will accelerate, especially among a so-called new breed of "super-predators" (code word for African-American youths).  This is pure nonsense and many who made such predictions have since recanted. It has always been easy for kids to be singled out as the culprits for a variety of social problems since those pointing the finger are almost always adults. Ironically, the largest increases in serious crimes in recent years have been among adults!

What is typically not covered very well in the mainstream press is the huge amount of corporate and white collar crimes.  Studies reveal that these crimes far outnumber ordinary crime and cause more monetary damage, death and injuries.  Given the increasing concentration of corporate power (via mergers, etc.) I would predict such crimes to increase even more - but few will end up in court and fewer still in prison.

Turning to the criminal justice system itself I see this "industry" becoming even more monolithic than it is now.  If recent trends continue, by 2005 taxpayers will shell out around $200 billion yearly for police, courts and the correctional system.  Currently we spend around $100-150 billion, up from a measly $10 billion in the late 1970s!

The real "growth industry" will be the "prison industrial complex."  If recent increases continue, we will have around 6.5 million behind bars by the year 2020 and more than 10 million people caught up within the criminal justice system (including those on probation or on parole).  One almost unbelievable prediction is that by 2020 about two-thirds of all African-American males between 18 and 35 will be behind bars!  The culprit will be mostly the "war on drugs," since it targets minorities.  (Drug convictions account for the bulk of new prison sentences in recent years.)  Such expenditures already have placed a serious drain on state resources, with many states actually cutting back on spending for health care, education and other services that ironically help reduce crime!  And the trend toward "privatization" will not be much help.

There are a few positive signs on the horizon.  There are a number of excellent programs in existence that can reduce crime and help victims.  One example is a program I personally evaluated.  Called the Detention Diversion Advocacy Project (DDAP), by targeting "high risk" youth already incarcerated and taking them out of the juvenile justice system, this program was able, by referring these youths to a number of local services, reduce their recidivism rates by half in San Francisco.  Two additional DDAP programs currently exist in Washington, D.C. and in Maryland.

More people are becoming acutely aware of the realities of the "war on drugs."  A few bold ones (some politicians and criminal justice officials) are calling for a "cease fire" if not a form of decriminalization.  Many are also becoming sensitive to the related problem of "racial profiling" (including the charge of "driving while black") that has had such devastating effects on minorities and their communities.  More people are becoming aware of the growth in corporate power and hence corporate crime.  The protests in Seattle over the WTO did a lot to alert people of the dangers of too much corporate power.  Need I mention the related problem of the power of "managed care" organizations?

What is needed more than anything is an informed citizenry, along with a truly free press - a press that is willing to challenge the propaganda put forth by politicians and criminal justice officials who have a vested interest in manipulating crime statistics that reflect favorably upon them.  We need to remember that we taxpayers foot the bill.  They are accountable to us and it is time we realize how much power we do have.

 

Las Vegas City Life, 1/20/00